After 2022, [OASI+DI] trust fund assets will be redeemed in amounts that exceed interest earnings until trust fund reserves are exhausted in 2036, one year earlier than was projected last year. Thereafter, tax income would be sufficient to pay only about three-quarters of scheduled benefits through 2085.Medicare posts equally sobering numbers. The Health Insurance (HI) portion of Medicare is being hit by the slow US economic recovery and by higher costs for medical care. The Trustees project that the HI trust fund will be exhausted in 2024:
Over 75 years, HI’s actuarial imbalance is estimated to be equivalent to 21 percent of tax receipts or 17 percent of program outlays.Medicare parts B and D (supplemental insurance and prescription drugs) are projected to be adequately financed indefinitely, but that’s due to a guaranteed Congressional allocation that currently amounts to 1.9% of GDP in 2010 and will reach 4.1% of GDP by 2085.
Obamacare lowers projected Medicare costs by 25% over the 75-year term. Most of the savings are related to reducing annual payment increases to providers, of which the Trustees note, “the long-term viability of this provision is debatable.”