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Friday, December 16, 2011

How Can Obama Win ?

A new AP-GfK Poll says that 52 % of American believe that Obama does not deserve to be re elected. With support for Obama waning in all quarters, its difficult to see how he can win. He has lost independents, rumor has it he is writing off white voters as a lost cause, support among Hispanic voters has fallen sharply, as it has with the 18 - 29 age group with only 30 % believing Obama can be re elected, even within the African American community support has fallen into the mid to low 80 % range. So it begs the question ... is Obama fighting a losing 1 billion dollar battle ?

Adding to Obama's difficulty is that in key states, those states, some of which unexpectedly flipped for Obama in 08 is that voters who identify themselves as Democrat is down 4 % while Republican identification is up 5 %. Voter enthusiasm is up within the Republican rank and file and down with Democrats. If one looks at those states which can be said to belong safely to R or D it shakes out in the Electoral College as some thing like this. Republicans have 151 electoral votes that are supposed solid gets with another 40 as leaners, adding up to 191. Democrats have 172 as solid, with 24 as leaners adding up to 196. There are 12 states which are considered swing states ( Pa, Oh, Va, Fla, Co, NV, NM, Iowa, WI., Mich, NH, NC ) and their electoral votes add up to 151 and that is where the fight is going to be. The problem is that Obama trails the top 2 Republican front runners ( Gingrich and Romney ) in these swing states. That makes it an uphill fight for Obama. The 4 states which could give the election to Republicans are Pa, Fla, Oh, and Va. There are a whole host of combinations that could do so as well but these states will do so with the least amount of muss or fuss. The big one is Fla with 29 electoral votes if that falls Republican, we will be a long way toward the 79 we need to win. I like the odds.

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